首页> 外文OA文献 >Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation
【2h】

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

机译:气候变化对阿拉斯加公共基础设施和主动适应经济造成了损害

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务,本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文,但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁,仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况,如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。
获取外文期刊封面目录资料

摘要

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.
机译:极地地区的气候变化正在引起剧烈的环境变化,这加剧了基础设施的脆弱性。我们使用修正后的基础设施模型来考虑北部纬度地区的独特气候影响,从而量化了气候变化在相对较高和较低的气候强迫情景下的气候变化对阿拉斯加公共基础设施的经济影响[代表浓度路径8.5(RCP8.5)和RCP4.5],包括近地表多年冻土融化。此外,我们评估了主动适应如何对选定基础设施类型产生经济影响,并针对12个社区与海岸侵蚀和海岸无冰季节延长相关的潜在土地流失开发了一阶估算。 2015年至2099年期间因气候变化对基础设施进行的气候变化破坏而未采取任何适应措施的估计支出(以下称破坏)为RCP8.5总计55亿美元(2015年美元,折扣3%),RCP4.5总计42亿美元,这表明减少温室气体排放可以在本世纪减少13亿美元的损失。破坏的分布在全州范围内各不相同,其中最大的破坏发生在阿拉斯加州的内陆和中南部。破坏的最大来源是降雨增加造成的道路洪水,其次是与近地表永久冻土融化有关的建筑物破坏。观察到对机场,铁路和管道的损害较小。主动适应将RCP8.5的预计累计总支出减少至29亿美元,将RCP4.5减少至23亿美元。对于道路洪水,在四个研究时代,适应措施每年可节省80-100%。在几乎所有评估的基础架构类型和时间段内,RCP8.5的破坏和适应成本要大于RCP4.5。 RCP8.5的估计海岸侵蚀损失也更大。

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
代理获取

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号